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Why falling commodity prices may not upend the EM rally.
By focusing so intensely on U.S. political developments, investors risk missing a silent shift in what has arguably been the strongest driver of global reflation in the last five years: Chinese credit.
The popular backlash against sub-par economic outcomes is giving rise to a form of economic nationalism known as "drawbridge capitalism."
While Chinese growth looks stable into early 2017, a more marked slowdown by the second quarter appears inevitable.
For much of 2016, a unique alignment of push and pull factors has driven strong performance in emerging markets (EM). The election of Republican Donald Trump and Republican majorities in the U.S. Congress on 8 November, however, represents a pivot point.
Mr. Frieda is an executive vice president and global strategist based in London. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2016, he served as a partner and global strategist at Moore Capital, focusing on global macroeconomic and financial sector policy issues. Prior to that, he ran emerging markets research and strategy for the Royal Bank of Scotland in London and for 4Cast in London and Singapore. He has 22 years of investment experience and holds a master's degree in economics from the London School of Economics and undergraduate degrees from the University of Oklahoma. He has served as a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Global Imbalances, a member of the UN Expert Panel on Financing Global Education and as an associate of the Political Economy of Financial Markets program at Oxford University.