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We see bullish and bearish risks to Europe’s outlook as roughly balanced in the near term, but increasing and tilting to the downside toward the end of our secular horizon.
We do not interpret Draghi’s speech as a hawkish change in policy.
Although we expect no change at Thursday’s meeting, the coincidence of robust economic growth and a technical limit on government bond holdings should force the ECB to taper QE early next year.
The risk of redenomination, remote as it is, still complicates the European Central Bank’s exit from quantitative easing.
There is a strong case for the ECB to continue tapering its QE programme, to alter its forward guidance and to begin normalising policy rates.
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Head of Portfolio Management, Germany
Mr. Bosomworth is a managing director in the Munich office and head of PIMCO portfolio management in Germany. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2001, he worked at the European Central Bank, Merrill Lynch and at New Zealand’s Debt Management Office. He has 23 years of investment experience and holds a master's degree in economics from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand. He also graduated from the Advanced Studies Program in International Policy Research at the Kiel Institute in Germany.