We discuss two of the key themes from our latest Cyclical Outlook that are likely to drive the global economy in the year ahead.

The U.S.-China trade deal is one of three diminishing policy risks, but investors shouldn’t assume that all policy uncertainty has been eliminated.

While the election result reduces Brexit uncertainty significantly, it doesn’t eliminate it. Will there be an extension of the transition period? How will any deal affect the economy? In the meantime, UK banks and sterling, especially wounded since the 2016 referendum, still offer value, while low-yielding gilts look unattractive relative to other government debt, such as U.S. Treasuries.

In its December forecasts, the Federal Reserve estimates that the policy rate will hold steady through 2020. Will economic and trade developments change that view?

The recent repo squall shined a spotlight on “sponsored repo” transactions, a growing segment of the U.S. overnight funding market.