Economic and Market Commentary

Confronting Lower Returns and Higher Volatility

Expensive valuations and elevated volatility are likely to create challenges, but an active, flexible focus on relative value and alpha generation will help contribute significantly to overall returns over the next three to five years.

More from this section

Read Transcript

Text on screen: PIMCO

Text on screen: PIMCO provides services only to qualified institutions and investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized

Text on screen: Candice Stack, Head of Client Management, Americas

Candice: What's our kind of broader view in terms of what clients and investors can think from a forward-looking return perspective?

Text on screen: Daniel J. Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer

Daniel Ivascyn: The challenge going forward is going to be that valuations across nearly all areas of the financial markets are relatively expensive. We don't necessarily think we're bubble territory, but I think it's important for investors to acknowledge that valuations are stretched under any type of historical metric.

And for that reason, for investors at this point of the recovery period with so much economy fragility, people just have to being their return expectations down a bit lower than they've grown accustomed to.

Text on screen: The reality of a low-return environment with higher volatility ahead

And then unfortunately of course, on the other side of the ledger, we expect volatility to be elevated. So low returns, higher volatility is the exact opposite of what we look for as investors. And it's going to create a much more challenging environment over the next 3 to 5 years than we've become accustomed to.

Candice Stack: Any final words in terms of investment implications, or considerations, as so many of our clients look to navigate these disruptions?

Dan Ivascyn: Going back to my initial points, when comparing the level of yields, the level of spreads, the level of equity markets from a valuation perspective today versus almost 12 years ago during the last crisis, they're high. And in some sense, we may have reached something resembling the destination in terms of beta returns. Which means on a go-forward basis, having flexibility in terms of a mandate, focusing on good old-fashioned relative value, alpha creation, over the next 3 to 5 years, is likely to be a much more significant contributor to overall returns than it's been over the more recent history.

So again, patient, flexible capital, taking a very active approach to industry security and sector selection, we do think will pay dividends over the next 3 to 5 years. And of course, we remain very, very diligent and focused on of course delivering in terms of investment returns.

Text on screen: For more insights and information, visit pimco.com

Text on screen: PIMCO

Disclosure


IMPORTANT NOTICE

Please note that the following contains the opinions of the manager as of the date noted, and may not have been updated to reflect real time market developments. All opinions are subject to change without notice.

All investments contain risk and may lose value.

Alpha is a measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis calculated by comparing the volatility (price risk) of a portfolio vs. its risk-adjusted performance to a benchmark index; the excess return relative to the benchmark is alpha

Beta is a measure of price sensitivity to market movements. Market beta is 1.

Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice.

This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. | Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660 is regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. managers| PIMCO Europe Ltd (Company No. 2604517) and PIMCO Europe Ltd - Italy (Company No. 07533910969) are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (12 Endeavour Square, London E20 1JN) in the UK. The Italy branch is additionally regulated by the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) in accordance with Article 27 of the Italian Consolidated Financial Act. PIMCO Europe Ltd services are available only to professional clients as defined in the Financial Conduct Authority’s Handbook and are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication. | PIMCO Europe GmbH (Company No. 192083, Seidlstr. 24-24a, 80335 Munich, Germany), PIMCO Europe GmbH Italian Branch (Company No. 10005170963) and PIMCO Europe GmbH Spanish Branch (N.I.F. W2765338E) are authorised and regulated by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) (Marie- Curie-Str. 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main) in Germany in accordance with Section 32 of the German Banking Act (KWG). The Italian Branch and Spanish Branch are additionally supervised by the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) in accordance with Article 27 of the Italian Consolidated Financial Act and the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) in accordance with obligations stipulated in articles 168 and  203  to 224, as well as obligations contained in Tile V, Section I of the Law on the Securities Market (LSM) and in articles 111, 114 and 117 of Royal Decree 217/2008, respectively. The services provided by PIMCO Europe GmbH are available only to professional clients as defined in Section 67 para. 2 German Securities Trading Act (WpHG). They are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication.| PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH (registered in Switzerland, Company No. CH-020.4.038.582-2), Brandschenkestrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland, Tel: + 41 44 512 49 10. The services provided by PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication but contact their financial adviser. | PIMCO Asia Pte Ltd (Registration No. 199804652K) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore as a holder of a capital markets services licence and an exempt financial adviser. The asset management services and investment products are not available to persons where provision of such services and products is unauthorised. | PIMCO Asia Limited is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission for Types 1, 4 and 9 regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. PIMCO Asia Limited is registered as a cross-border discretionary investment manager with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Korea (Registration No. 08-02-307). The asset management services and investment products are not available to persons where provision of such services and products is unauthorised. | PIMCO Australia Pty Ltd ABN 54 084 280 508, AFSL 246862. This publication has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of investors. Before making an investment decision, investors should obtain professional advice and consider whether the information contained herein is appropriate having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. | PIMCO Japan Ltd, Financial Instruments Business Registration Number is Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firm) No. 382. PIMCO Japan Ltd is a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and The Investment Trusts Association, Japan. All investments contain risk. There is no guarantee that the principal amount of the investment will be preserved, or that a certain return will be realized; the investment could suffer a loss. All profits and losses incur to the investor. The amounts, maximum amounts and calculation methodologies of each type of fee and expense and their total amounts will vary depending on the investment strategy, the status of investment performance, period of management and outstanding balance of assets and thus such fees and expenses cannot be set forth herein. | PIMCO Taiwan Limited is managed and operated independently. The reference number of business license of the company approved by the competent authority is (109) Jin Guan Tou Gu Xin Zi No. 027. 40F., No.68, Sec. 5, Zhongxiao E. Rd., Xinyi Dist., Taipei City 110, Taiwan (R.O.C.). Tel: +886 2 8729-5500. | PIMCO Canada Corp. (199 Bay Street, Suite 2050, Commerce Court Station, P.O. Box 363, Toronto, ON, M5L 1G2) services and products may only be available in certain provinces or territories of Canada and only through dealers authorized for that purpose. | PIMCO Latin America Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima 3477, Torre A, 5° andar São Paulo, Brazil 04538-133. | No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. ©2020,PIMCO.

CMR2020-1026-1385123

Filters: Reset All

Filters

Close Filters Dropdown
  • Tags

    Reset

    Close
  • Category

    Reset

    Economic and Market Commentary
    Investment Strategies
    Bond by Bond
    Viewpoints
    Careers
    Education
    PIMCO Foundation
    View from the Investment Committee
    Close
  • Order By

    Reset

    Alphabetical
    Most Recent
    Close
() filters applied

Multimedia Finder

Filter By:
  • Economic and Market Commentary
  • Investment Strategies
  • Bond by Bond
  • Viewpoints
  • Careers
  • Understanding Investing
  • View from the Investment Committee
  • A
  • B
  • C
  • D
  • F
  • G
  • H
  • I
  • K
  • L
  • M
  • N
  • P
  • R
  • S
  • T
  • W
Clear
Tina Adatia
Fixed Income Strategist
Olivia A. Albrecht
Head of ESG Business Strategy
Joshua Anderson
Head of Global ABS Portfolio Management
Andrew Balls
CIO Global Fixed Income
Justin Blesy
Asset Allocation Strategist
David L. Braun
Head of US Financial Institutions Portfolio Management
Nathaniel Brown
Erin Browne
Portfolio Manager, Asset Allocation
Libby Cantrill
Head of Public Policy
Stephen Chang
Portfolio Manager, Asia
Pramol Dhawan
Head of Emerging Markets Portfolio Management
Joachim Fels
Global Economic Advisor
David Fisher
Head of Traditional Product Strategies
Adam Gubner
Portfolio Manager, Distressed Debt
Mary Hoppe
Daniel H. Hyman
Head of Agency MBS Portfolio Management
Daniel J. Ivascyn
Group Chief Investment Officer
Mark R. Kiesel
CIO Global Credit
Christine Long
Scott A. Mather
CIO U.S. Core Strategies
Mohit Mittal
Portfolio Manager, Liability Driven Investment and Credit
James Moore
John Murray
Portfolio Manager, Commercial Real Estate
John Nersesian
Head of Advisor Education
Sonali Pier
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Sector Credit
Libby Rodney
Steve A. Rodosky
Portfolio Manager, Real Return and Long Duration
Emmanuel Roman
Chief Executive Officer
Steve Sapra
Client Solutions & Analytics
Jerome M. Schneider
Head of Short-Term Portfolio Management
Marc P. Seidner
CIO Non-traditional Strategies
Greg E. Sharenow
Portfolio Manager, Real Assets
Anmol Sinha
Fixed Income Strategist
Candice Stack
Head of Client Management, Americas
Cathy Stahl
Global Head of Marketing
Christian Stracke
Global Head of Credit Research
John Studzinski
Vice Chairman
Geraldine Sundstrom
Portfolio Manager, Asset Allocation
Richard Thaler
Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Behavioral Science at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business
Jessica K. Tom
Senior Credit Analyst
Jamie Weinstein
Portfolio Manager, Head of Corporate Special Situations
Tiffany Wilding
North American Economist
Andrew T. Wittkop
Portfolio Manager, Treasuries, Agencies, Rates
PIMCO
  • Alphabetical
  • Most Recent
Section : Date : Experts :
Reset All
Reason for Optimism
Confronting Lower Returns and Higher Volatility
Economic Disruptors and Swing Factors
Investment Opportunities Over the Secular Horizon
Finding Resiliency in a Long Recovery
Straight From PIMCO: What We’re Watching in Emerging Markets

Load more results Load {{cCtrl.fetchResults}} more results

PIMCO

INTERNATIONAL

[change]

Subscribe
Please input a valid email address.